The smallest thing can save the world
About a month ago, I saw the documentary, "Who Killed the Electric Car". It really got me thinking about it, and changed a lot about the way I felt about cars. These cars were truly ahead of their time. But they were far from profitable, and that's why eventually they got killed off. More shockingly, many of the automobile makers actually crushed the cars when they were at the end of the lease (you couldn't buy them), even though they were in perfect working order.
The cars themselves found a niche market, but were far from perfect. They typically only had a range of about 60-100 miles. Their top speed was around 65 MPH. Their acceleration was good, but below average compared to most cars (more a product of the available energy from the batteries than the motors themselves). And if you needed to go more than the range of the car (some people's commutes could easily be more than 60 miles round trip, plus a few errands at the end of the day or at lunch), you had to charge it up, a process which could take hours, assuming you had a charger at your work.
Anyways, jump forward to today. Technology has changed a huge amount in the past 10 years. One of the biggest changes has been in the area of batteries. Largely fed by laptops and cell phones, huge amounts have been spent on research and development on batteries. They can't be small enough, charge fast enough, or hold enough power. Lithium ion (L-ion) batteries are now the norm, and hold large amounts of power. But there's still room for improvement.
Last year, a company called Tesla Motors announced they were introducing an all electric sports car based on the lithium ion batteries. A two-seater, this car would get 250 miles on a single charge, top speed of around 130 MPH, and 0 to 60 in about 4 seconds. Simply put, wow. It's definitely a best of breed of all the things that an electric car is capable of. There's just one problem: it's got a sticker price of $92,000. (Tesla is promises a mid-sized sedan in the next year at a substantially lower price point.)
A 250 mile range is fantastic, considering 99% of the time you would almost never need to go more than that in a single day. Still, should you ever need to go more than that, you have a couple choices. One, you can recharge it (it could be an hour to get up to 80% charge, 3.5 hours at a full charge, assuming you have a 240-volt outlet available). Or you can rent an old gas-car. Neither is convenient.
So I read some months ago about a new technology for instant charging from a company called AltairNano. Basically it uses nano technology to perfectly align the lithium ion molecules so that electrons can easily rush in. It also hugely expands the surface area on which electrons can attract to, quadrupling the storage space for electricity per kilogram. And because the molecules are perfectly aligned to hold the electrons, so unlike traditional lithium ion batteries who's charging cycle causes a expansion (when charged) and collapse (when discharged) of the lithium ion batteries, eventually leading to breakdown (as all of us with laptops know, at which point you have to get new batteries), AltairNano's batteries have almost none, causing them to last 12-20 years. (In laboratory tests, after 10,000 charge/discharge cycles, the batteries still had 85% of their original capacity.) And without the graphite conduits, they're far safer than current technology Li-ion batteries. Oh yeah, and they'll work almost just as well in sub-zero temperatures as they do in the California sun.
That's all and great in the lab, but when can we actually use them?
Sooner than I had ever thought. A company called Phoenix Motorcars announced they were making an all electric sport utility truck. (An mid-sized SUV will shortly follow. Yes, a battery-powered SUV.) Now, a roomy truck? Made in America? What's that going to be like?
The performance is absolutely amazing. While not the Tesla sportster, it comfortably seats five people and a payload in back, has a top speed of 95 MPH, and goes from 0 to 60 in 10 seconds (find any SUV that does that). The first model will have a range of 100-130 miles, later releasing an optional battery pack that will double that (as production of the battery packs ramps up).
And the best part? You can charge it at home overnight in about 6 hours. Basically you wake up every day to a full tank. Or, with that super-fast charging I was talking about, you can go to a super-fast charger (think a gas station for electricity) and charge it to 95% in 10 minutes. The idea is that it'll go as far as your regular car, perform like your regular car (or better!), and fills up just as fast too. No, the chargers are not yet in place today, but places can add them in pretty inexpensively, and they take up almost no room. In fact, one super-fast charger can supply an entire fleet (if they need to top off during the day), with regular cheap 240V outlets providing plenty of power for longer, overnight charging. And unlike gas stations, you can put them in anywhere you can put a car and electricity. A payment system would need to be devised (similar to what you have at a gas station), meaning they might still be relegated to gas stations, but there's no saying they couldn't be in restaurant parking spots too (so you could charge it over lunch or dinner, although it probably would be charged by the time you were served). In fact, it could eliminate the need for most gas stations altogether.
And that 99% of the time you don't have to go over the range in a day, you'll never have to go to a gas station again. Just plug it in like you do your cell phone every night. Forget to plug it in? Just go to the power station for 10 minutes and you got a charge. Assuming you need to.
But how about the price? Well, you're definitely going to get a bit of sticker shock. At first. At $45,000, it's more than most people are going to pay. But about everything else about it is cheaper than your typical gas-powered car.
For one thing, this thing will last forever. With none of the complex moving parts of a gas engine, there's very little maintenance. Rotate the tires, and replace when they wear out (just like a gas car). But no oil changes, no transmission jobs. Oh, just add windshield wiper fluid. Even because the brakes use regenerative "engine" braking, they'll last several times longer than typical brakes. (The same is true on your typical hybrid.) They're expected to last well past 250,000 miles. And the batteries (typically lasting only 5-7 years in other models) is expected to last 250,000 miles or 12+ years, on what was the only big ticket maintanance on an electric vehicle. Typically I would never suggest a lease or loan over 6 years (you don't want big car payments and big repair costs at the same time towards the end of the term), but with a 10-year loan or lease, you could easily push the payments into the affordable level of $400-500/month. And none of the big ticket repairs that typically plague your older internal combustion engine.
And over time of course, as volume sales get higher, they could easily get down to the $20,000-30,000 range (especially for smaller, lighter cars that don't need big engines or batteries), and still last just as long.
And the cost of electricity? Less than half that of a gasoline car. Typical electric cars use about 250-300 watt-hours per mile. (The smaller Tesla is even less, about 180 watts/mile.) Let's just say that's 1/3 kWh. Here in expensive California, base is 13 cents a kilowatt. That's 4 cents a mile. (Time of day pricing, if you only charge it at night when power plants have tons of capacity, could bring that down to 5-8 cents per kWh, or 2-3 cents a mile.) Compare to a car (say like my Saturn) getting 30 MPG. At $2.50 a gallon, that's about 9 cents a mile. And gas ain't getting any cheaper.
So your total cost of ownership is still less than a gas powered car. And that's not taking government incentives into account.
What about emissions? The vast majority of electricity in the US is from coal, some from natural gas, but some from hydroelectric and nuclear. Even assuming you powered it from coal-fired plants, their emissions per mile would be less than a third to a fourth what the best hybrid cars emit. And even less when from natural gas. And grid capacity? By only powering at night when power plants have their most availability, it's estimated an additional 20 million electric cars could be added to the roads without having to add a single power plant.
And the best part? Almost all electricity generated today is from domestic sources, either coal, nuclear, hydroelectric and most natural gas. More of that can come from renewables like sun and wind. Electric cars remain one of our best options for becoming energy independent in the foreseeable future.
And speaking of nanotechnology, a company called Nanosolar has used a similar technology to make super cheap solar panels, expected to be 10-20% the cost of current technology panels, putting solar on par with grid power in terms of cost.
And these are not just possibilities. They're here today. Production has already started, and the first models should roll out of the assembly lines later this year. First to fleets (like cities, companies and post offices), and then for the general public in 2008. In fact, Tesla has already sold out of their entire 2007 model year. And the first one hasn't even rolled off the assembly line yet. (They do this fall.)
Maybe the electric car isn't so dead after all.
The cars themselves found a niche market, but were far from perfect. They typically only had a range of about 60-100 miles. Their top speed was around 65 MPH. Their acceleration was good, but below average compared to most cars (more a product of the available energy from the batteries than the motors themselves). And if you needed to go more than the range of the car (some people's commutes could easily be more than 60 miles round trip, plus a few errands at the end of the day or at lunch), you had to charge it up, a process which could take hours, assuming you had a charger at your work.
Anyways, jump forward to today. Technology has changed a huge amount in the past 10 years. One of the biggest changes has been in the area of batteries. Largely fed by laptops and cell phones, huge amounts have been spent on research and development on batteries. They can't be small enough, charge fast enough, or hold enough power. Lithium ion (L-ion) batteries are now the norm, and hold large amounts of power. But there's still room for improvement.
Last year, a company called Tesla Motors announced they were introducing an all electric sports car based on the lithium ion batteries. A two-seater, this car would get 250 miles on a single charge, top speed of around 130 MPH, and 0 to 60 in about 4 seconds. Simply put, wow. It's definitely a best of breed of all the things that an electric car is capable of. There's just one problem: it's got a sticker price of $92,000. (Tesla is promises a mid-sized sedan in the next year at a substantially lower price point.)
A 250 mile range is fantastic, considering 99% of the time you would almost never need to go more than that in a single day. Still, should you ever need to go more than that, you have a couple choices. One, you can recharge it (it could be an hour to get up to 80% charge, 3.5 hours at a full charge, assuming you have a 240-volt outlet available). Or you can rent an old gas-car. Neither is convenient.
So I read some months ago about a new technology for instant charging from a company called AltairNano. Basically it uses nano technology to perfectly align the lithium ion molecules so that electrons can easily rush in. It also hugely expands the surface area on which electrons can attract to, quadrupling the storage space for electricity per kilogram. And because the molecules are perfectly aligned to hold the electrons, so unlike traditional lithium ion batteries who's charging cycle causes a expansion (when charged) and collapse (when discharged) of the lithium ion batteries, eventually leading to breakdown (as all of us with laptops know, at which point you have to get new batteries), AltairNano's batteries have almost none, causing them to last 12-20 years. (In laboratory tests, after 10,000 charge/discharge cycles, the batteries still had 85% of their original capacity.) And without the graphite conduits, they're far safer than current technology Li-ion batteries. Oh yeah, and they'll work almost just as well in sub-zero temperatures as they do in the California sun.
That's all and great in the lab, but when can we actually use them?
Sooner than I had ever thought. A company called Phoenix Motorcars announced they were making an all electric sport utility truck. (An mid-sized SUV will shortly follow. Yes, a battery-powered SUV.) Now, a roomy truck? Made in America? What's that going to be like?
The performance is absolutely amazing. While not the Tesla sportster, it comfortably seats five people and a payload in back, has a top speed of 95 MPH, and goes from 0 to 60 in 10 seconds (find any SUV that does that). The first model will have a range of 100-130 miles, later releasing an optional battery pack that will double that (as production of the battery packs ramps up).
And the best part? You can charge it at home overnight in about 6 hours. Basically you wake up every day to a full tank. Or, with that super-fast charging I was talking about, you can go to a super-fast charger (think a gas station for electricity) and charge it to 95% in 10 minutes. The idea is that it'll go as far as your regular car, perform like your regular car (or better!), and fills up just as fast too. No, the chargers are not yet in place today, but places can add them in pretty inexpensively, and they take up almost no room. In fact, one super-fast charger can supply an entire fleet (if they need to top off during the day), with regular cheap 240V outlets providing plenty of power for longer, overnight charging. And unlike gas stations, you can put them in anywhere you can put a car and electricity. A payment system would need to be devised (similar to what you have at a gas station), meaning they might still be relegated to gas stations, but there's no saying they couldn't be in restaurant parking spots too (so you could charge it over lunch or dinner, although it probably would be charged by the time you were served). In fact, it could eliminate the need for most gas stations altogether.
And that 99% of the time you don't have to go over the range in a day, you'll never have to go to a gas station again. Just plug it in like you do your cell phone every night. Forget to plug it in? Just go to the power station for 10 minutes and you got a charge. Assuming you need to.
But how about the price? Well, you're definitely going to get a bit of sticker shock. At first. At $45,000, it's more than most people are going to pay. But about everything else about it is cheaper than your typical gas-powered car.
For one thing, this thing will last forever. With none of the complex moving parts of a gas engine, there's very little maintenance. Rotate the tires, and replace when they wear out (just like a gas car). But no oil changes, no transmission jobs. Oh, just add windshield wiper fluid. Even because the brakes use regenerative "engine" braking, they'll last several times longer than typical brakes. (The same is true on your typical hybrid.) They're expected to last well past 250,000 miles. And the batteries (typically lasting only 5-7 years in other models) is expected to last 250,000 miles or 12+ years, on what was the only big ticket maintanance on an electric vehicle. Typically I would never suggest a lease or loan over 6 years (you don't want big car payments and big repair costs at the same time towards the end of the term), but with a 10-year loan or lease, you could easily push the payments into the affordable level of $400-500/month. And none of the big ticket repairs that typically plague your older internal combustion engine.
And over time of course, as volume sales get higher, they could easily get down to the $20,000-30,000 range (especially for smaller, lighter cars that don't need big engines or batteries), and still last just as long.
And the cost of electricity? Less than half that of a gasoline car. Typical electric cars use about 250-300 watt-hours per mile. (The smaller Tesla is even less, about 180 watts/mile.) Let's just say that's 1/3 kWh. Here in expensive California, base is 13 cents a kilowatt. That's 4 cents a mile. (Time of day pricing, if you only charge it at night when power plants have tons of capacity, could bring that down to 5-8 cents per kWh, or 2-3 cents a mile.) Compare to a car (say like my Saturn) getting 30 MPG. At $2.50 a gallon, that's about 9 cents a mile. And gas ain't getting any cheaper.
So your total cost of ownership is still less than a gas powered car. And that's not taking government incentives into account.
What about emissions? The vast majority of electricity in the US is from coal, some from natural gas, but some from hydroelectric and nuclear. Even assuming you powered it from coal-fired plants, their emissions per mile would be less than a third to a fourth what the best hybrid cars emit. And even less when from natural gas. And grid capacity? By only powering at night when power plants have their most availability, it's estimated an additional 20 million electric cars could be added to the roads without having to add a single power plant.
And the best part? Almost all electricity generated today is from domestic sources, either coal, nuclear, hydroelectric and most natural gas. More of that can come from renewables like sun and wind. Electric cars remain one of our best options for becoming energy independent in the foreseeable future.
And speaking of nanotechnology, a company called Nanosolar has used a similar technology to make super cheap solar panels, expected to be 10-20% the cost of current technology panels, putting solar on par with grid power in terms of cost.
And these are not just possibilities. They're here today. Production has already started, and the first models should roll out of the assembly lines later this year. First to fleets (like cities, companies and post offices), and then for the general public in 2008. In fact, Tesla has already sold out of their entire 2007 model year. And the first one hasn't even rolled off the assembly line yet. (They do this fall.)
Maybe the electric car isn't so dead after all.
posted by Joe Carlin at 11:04 PM
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